Chirevo chenguva pfupi yapfuura Wood Mackenzie chinotarisa mafambiro uye matambudziko mumusika wesolar weUS uri kukura, kusanganisira kugadzira kunokurudzirwa neUS Inflation Reduction Act.
Kubva pv magazine USA
Iyo US Inflation Reduction Act ye2022 ine mabhiriyoni mazana matatu nemakumi manomwe emadhora mukushandiswa kwesimba rinodzokororwa uye matanho emamiriro ekunze.Bhiri iri rinosanganisira mari inodarika mabhiriyoni makumi matanhatu emadhorakugadzira mudzimbamhiri kwecheni yakachena yekugovera magetsi.Iyi nhanho yenhoroondo yekudyara ndiyo yakakosha pakuwana rusununguko rwekugadzira rweAmerica uye kuchengetedzwa kwesimba rakachena.
Chirevo chechangobva kuitika kubva kuna Wood Mackenzie chinoratidza kuti vanogadzira, makambani ekuvaka einjiniya (EPCs) nevagadziri vachange vachitsvaga nhungamiro kubva kuUS Treasury department neIRS kuti ijekeswe kuitira kuronga kuvandudza kwezuva nekudyara munzvimbo itsva dzekugadzira. mukati meUnited States.
Chirevo chinotarisa mafambiro eindasitiri iri kukura, kusanganisira kutarisa kuTOPCon modules pamusoro peheterojunction (HJT), kukura mumusika wepasi rose wekugara inverter, kuwedzera kwekugadzira tracker, kudonha kunotarisirwa kudonha kwemitengo yeprojekiti yezuva uye kutarisa matambudziko ari kumberi. .
TOPcon vs. PERC
TOPCon, iyo inomirira tunnel oxide passivated contacts, inotarisirwa kupfuudza heterojunction (HJT), uye Wood Mackenzie report inotaura kuti mono PERC "ndiyo tekinoroji inoyera kukura uye kushanda zvakanaka", zvichiratidza kuti TOPCon ine mukana wekukura zvakanyanya nekuda kwekuita. kunatsiridza uye mutengo optimization.
"Iyo PERCpanel tekinorojiine zvakare inokurumidza kudzidza curve uye chiyero chiri pakati pavo chinoenderana nekuti ndiani achakwanisa kuwedzera kushanda kwayo kana kuderedza mutengo nekukurumidza kupfuura imwe," Stefan Gunz, mukuru we photovoltaics research paFraunhofer Institute yeSolar Energy Systems yekuGermany. (ISE), akaudzapv magazinegore rapfuura.
Wood Mackenzie vanoongorora vanofungidzira kuti TOPCon modules yasvika 25% kushanda zvakanaka mukugadzirwa kwehuwandu uye inogona kukwira kusvika 28.7%
Kukwidziridza kugadzira kubva kuMono PERC kugadzirwa kuenda kuTOPCon iri nyore uye ine mutengo wakaderera wekudyara, uye vanoongorora vanofungidzira kuti kushanda kwemalab kwe27% kunogona kuwanikwa kuburikidza nekuvandudzwa kwesimbi uye matete mawafers.Wood Mackenzie anocherekedza kuti vamwe vagadziri vanotarisira avhareji yewafer ukobvu hwemahombe-fomati TOPCon modules kudzikira makumi maviri μm gore rino kusvika 120 μm, izvo zvinotungamira kuderedzwa kwemitengo muna 2023.
The Inflation Reduction Act iri kukurudzira kugadzirwa kwemamodule eUS nekuda kwemadhora mabhiriyoni makumi matatu emadhora ekukweretesa mutero wekugadzira pamwe nechikwereti chemadhora mabhiriyoni gumi emutero wekudyara kuvaka nzvimbo dzekugadzira tekinoroji dzakachena.Wood Mackenzie anotarisira USmodule kugadzira kugonakudarika 15 GW pakupera kwegore rino.
Mubvunzo mukuru, zvisinei, ndiyo tsanangudzo ye "midziyo yakagadzirwa mudzimba", uye kana zvichireva kuti ma modules akaungana muUnited States, kana kana zvikamu zvose zvakaitwa muU.Dambudziko revagadziri vemamodule nderekuti hapana kana wafer kana maseru kugadzira muUS, kunyangwe izvo zviri kuchinja nezviziviso zvichangoburwa nemakambani anosanganisira Qcells neCubicPV.Musiyano mukududzirwa kwezvinhu zvemukati "zvinogona kukanganisa zvakanyanya kugadzirwa kwemodule mumakore mashanu anotevera", chirevo chinopokana.Vaongorori vanofungidzira kuti ingangoita makumi mana neshanu GWdc yezviziviso zvitsva ichauya online panosvika 2026.
Kukura kunotarisirwa kukura kwezuva muUS kuchaputika kuburikidza neketani yekugovera, kuwedzera kukura kwemainverters uye trackers, pakati pezvimwe zvinotsigira zvikamu.Chirevo cheWood Mackenzie chinocherekedza kuti shanduko dzichangoburwa dzemitemo, kusanganisira EU's REPowerEU, kuita kweIndia kweProduction Linked Incentives (PLI) uye US IRA, ichamhanyisa kutorwa kwezuva munyika idzi, nokudaro zvichibatsira nyika kusvika pazvinangwa zvadzo zero.
Sekureva kwemushumo, iyo yekugara inverter musika ichakura pasirese muna 2023. Nedenga redenga rezuva richiwedzera simba, kunyanya munyika dzakaita seIndia neGermany, pachava nekuwedzera kunoenderana mumusika we microinverters, tambo inverters uye DC optimizers, iyo inonyanya kufarirwa inverter sarudzo dzekuisa padenga remba.Zvikuru, tambo inverters ine akawanda epamusoro simba point trackers (MPPTs) ichaona yakawedzera musika kuwanda muna 2023.
Yekugara inverters ichaona kuwedzera kwekushandiswa kwehungwaru hwekugadzira mune ayo algorithms.Module-level power electronics (MLPEs) uye single-phase tambo inverters, inonyanya kufarirwa padenga rekuisa solar, ichaona chikamu che11% chemusika mukutumirwa kwepasirese inverter muna 2023. Inverter kugadzira kuchawedzera nevatambi vakuru vachiwedzera mitsara yekugadzira uye vatsva vanopinda. kujoinha musika, uye makwikwi anotevera achaita kuti mutengo udzike kubva pa2% kusvika pa4% muna 2023.
Dambudziko rinoramba riripo kune vanogadzira inverter ishomeka yepasi rose chip, iyo vanoongorora Wood Mackenzie vanotarisira kuenderera mberi ne2023 uye ichipinda muna 2024. Kushomeka uku kwakonzera kuti vanogadzira inverter vatore machipisi kubva kune vagadziri vepasi vasati vaitisa ongororo yemukati meimba. kuve nechokwadi chekuti inverters yavo 'mhando, kushanda nesimba uye hupenyu hurefu.Wood Mac anofanotaura kuti inverter mutengo hauzodzika kusvika gare gare gore rino.
Kugadzirwa kwemudzimba tracker kuri kukurumidza munzvimbo dzinoverengeka dzepasi nekuda kwekukurudzira kwehurumende pamwe nemamiriro ezvinhu akaitika panguva yeCOVID-19 denda.Sekureva kwaVa Wood Mackenzie vanoongorora, mitengo yetracker ichadzikira muIndia nekuUnited States.Vanotarisira kugadzikana kwakanyanya mukugadzirwa kwesimbi muUS neIndia, kunyanya nekuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwesimbi.Europe, zvisinei, icharamba yakatarisana nekusaenzana mumusika wesimbi.Sezvo anopfuura makumi matanhatu muzana ekuumbwa kwe tracker isimbi, kudzokororwa kwesimbi kudiwa kuchakonzera makwikwi ekuwedzera mumusika wekutengesa kune vatengesi, anodaro Wood Mackenzie vanoongorora, vachifungidzira kuti mitengo ye2023 yevanoteedzera ichadonha ne5% muUnited States, Brazil uye. China.
Mari yezuva
Mari yekushandisa mari icharamba ichidonha, inotungamirwa muchikamu nekuwedzera kushandiswa kweTOPcon modules.Wood Mackenzie vaongorori vanotarisirawo kuti mitengo yepolysilicon ichadzikira gore rino uye vanofungidzira kuti iripo300 GWyehuwandu hwepasi rose huchasvika 900 GW pakupera kwa2023.
"Tinofungidzira kuti pamusoro pe miriyoni imwe yeMt ye polysilicon yekuwedzera ichauya online panosvika 2023. Mazhinji ehuwandu hutsva achange ari muChina.Nekudaro, isu tinotenda kuti ingangoita gumi muzana yakarongerwa kuve kunze kweChina inogona kuraira mutengo sezvo inogona kunge isina mutero uye dzimwe njodzi dzemitemo. "
Dambudziko ririkuenderera mberi ndere kusavimbika kwakatenderedza antidumping/countervailing (AD/CVD) mutero wemitengo.NeDhipatimendi reCommerce reUS rinotarisirwa kuzivisa zvisungo zvekupedzisira muna Chivabvu 2023, Wood Mackenzie anofungidzira kuti mabasa anogona kubva pa16% kusvika 254% zvichienderana nenyika kwaakabva.Kutsunga kwekutanga, kwakaburitswa muna Zvita 2022, kwakawana makambani ekutanga, akaita seTrina, BYD, Vina (chikamu cheLongi) neCanada Solar, achinzvenga mitero yeChinese.Kutsunga kwekutanga kwakabvisa Hanwha naJinko izvo zvichazoguma nekumwe zororo mukuwanikwa kwemodule muna 2023.
MuUnited States, vanogadzira vacharamba vachitarisa pane zvinodiwa neIRA, kusanganisira iyo iripo muhoro uye yemukati yemukati mabhonasi mapurojekiti anotanga kuvakwa muna 2023. chikwereti, mapurojekiti ese akakura kupfuura 1 MWac anofanira kubhadhara vashandi vayo muhoro uripo uye kutanga chirongwa chekudzidzira basa.
MuEurope, mutemo weREPowerEU une chinangwa chekuisa 320 GW ye solar PV ne2025 uye 600 GW pasi peEU solar energy strategy.Kuti izadzise zvinangwa zveshungu izvi, inofanirwa kuvaka nzvimbo yakasimba yekugadzira mukati medunhu.Iyo itsva European Solar Photovoltaic Indasitiri Alliance, ichagadzira hurongwa hwekubatsira kuchengetedza mari yekugadzira uye kusimudzira tsvakiridzo uye hunyanzvi mune tekinoroji yemodule, pakati pehumwe zero-kabhoni tekinoroji.
Dambudziko rekupedzisira kuPV kugadziramuEurope, maererano Wood Mackenzie vaongorori, ndiwo mutengo makwikwi kubva APAC nharaunda nokuda kwayo yakakwirira mutengo simba, basa uye zvinhu, asi inogona kubatsirwa kubva vatengi vanoda kubhadhara premium kuti zviri nani tekinoroji uye pachena mukutengesa cheni.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-29-2023