naFinlay Colville
Mbudzi 17, 2022
Pachave nepolysilicon yakakwana inogadzirwa muna 2022 kutsigira kugadzirwa kwe320GW yec-Si modules.Mufananidzo: JA Solar.
Iyo solar PV indasitiri inofungidzira kuburitsa 310GW yemamodule muna 2022, inomiririra inoshamisa 45% gore-pagore kuwedzera zvichienzaniswa ne2021, maererano netsvagiridzo yazvino yakaitwa nePV Tech musika timu yekutsvagisa uye yakatsanangurwa muPV Kugadzira &. Technology Quarterly report.
Musika muna 2022 waive wekugadzira-wakatungamirwa uye pakupedzisira wakakura nehuwandu hwepolysilicon yakagadzirwa gore rose.Kudiwa pane dzimwe nguva kwaimhanya 50-100% yakakwirira kupfuura yaigona kugadzirwa.
Pachave nepolysilicon yakakwana inogadzirwa muna 2022 kutsigira kugadzirwa kwe320GW yec-Si modules.Wafer uye c-Si masero ekugadzira mazinga anogona kupedzisira asvika 315GW.Kugadzirwa kwemodule (c-Si uye yakaonda-firimu) inofanira kunge iri pedyo ne310GW, nekutengeswa kwekupedzisira kwemusika ku297GW.Ndiri kuisa ± 2% kukanganisa-yakasungwa pane izvi zvakakosha izvozvi, nemavhiki matanhatu ekugadzirwa asara kwegore.
Pa297GW yemamodule akatumirwa muna 2022, huwandu hwakakosha hweizvi hazvizokonzeresa hutsva hwekuisa PV.Izvi zvinokonzerwa nezvikonzero zvakawanda;imwe mwero, imwe itsva.Zvakanyanya kutaurwa kwave kuri 'kuchengetera' kwemamodule kuUS tsika uye kunonoka kwekubatanidza.Asi iko zvino kune vhoriyamu inoyemurika inoenda mukutsiviwa nemodule kana kutosimbisa chirimwa.Yekupedzisira nyowani PV yakakura yakawedzerwa muna 2022 inogona kupedzisira yave pedyo ne260GW kana zvese izvi zvazivikanwa zvizere.
Kubva pakuona kwekugadzira, pakanga pasina zvinoshamisa zvikuru.China yakagadzira 90% yepolysilicon, 99% yezvimedu, 91% yec-Si masero uye 85% yec-Si modules.Uye zvechokwadi, munhu wese anoda kugadzirwa kwemumba, kunyanya India, US neEurope.Kuda chinhu chimwe;kuva nechimwe chinhu.
Inenge hafu yepolysilicon yakagadzirwa muChina muna 2022 yePV indasitiri inogadzirwa muXinjiang.Chiyero ichi chinodonha gore rega rega kuenda kumberi izvozvi, pasina hutsva hutsva hunotarisirwa kuuya online mudunhu rino.
Panyaya yetekinoroji, n-mhando yakaita kupindira kukuru, neTOPCon ikozvino iyo yakasarudzika yekuvaka yevatungamiriri vemusika, kunyangwe mamwe mazita ane mukurumbira ari kutarisira kutyaira kuburikidza ese ari maviri heterojunction uye back-contact kune yakawanda-GW chiyero muna 2023. Inenge 20GW. yen-mhando maseru anofanotaura kuti achagadzirwa muna 2022, iyo 83% ichave TOPCon.Vagadziri veChinese vari kutyaira TOPCon shanduko;inenge 97% yeTOPCon maseru akagadzirwa muna 2022 ari kuChina.Gore rinouya vangangoona shanduko iyi, sezvo TOPCon inotanga kuwana nzira yekupinda muUS utility segment, chimwe chinhu chinoda kuti TOPCon maseru aitwe kunze kweChina, pamwe kuSoutheast Asia, asi zvinoenderana nezvinoitika nekuferefeta kuri kuitika anti-circumvention muUS.
Panyaya yekutumira ma module muna 2022, Europe yakave yakahwina muhombe, kunyangwe inoshamisa 100GW-pamwe nemamodule akagadzirwa muChina uye akachengetwa muChina.Kunze kweUS, mamwe ese makuru ekupedzisira-misika akaona yakasimba-madijiti maviri kukura, mukuenderana nekuda kwemanic kwesolar iyo yakabata nyika nguva pfupi yadarika.
Europe yaive pasi pedzimwe nyaya muna 2022 izvo zvakakonzera kukura kunoshamisa kwakaonekwa.Dunhu iri rakava nzvimbo yekuendesa-yekutumira mavhoriyamu akange asipo kumusika weUS uye zvakare yakanyanya kukanganiswa nemhedzisiro yekukonana muUkraine.Anenge 67GW emamodule akatumirwa kumusika weEurope muna 2022 - mavhoriyamu hapana aitarisira gore rapfuura.
Mugore rose, indasitiri yePV yainyanya kukanganiswa neiyo buzzword nyowani pamiromo yemunhu wese: traceability.Kutenga solar PV modules hakuna kumbove kwakaoma kudaro.
Isa parutivi chokwadi chekuti mitengo ichiri 20-30% yakakwira kupfuura makore akati wandei apfuura, kuti zvibvumirano zvakasainwa mwedzi mitanhatu yapfuura zvinogona kunge zvisina kukodzera bepa raakanyorwa pariri, kana zvechokwadi misoro minzwa yekuvimbika kwemunda uye kukudza zvichemo zvewaranti.
Kupfuura zvese izvi nhasi ndiyo traceability conundrum.Ndiani anoita chii uye kupi nhasi, uye zvakanyanya kusvika padanho, vachazviita kupi mumakore anotevera.
Nyika yemubatanidzwa iri kunetsekana nenyaya iyi izvozvi uye zvazvinoreva kana uchitenga PV module.Ndakanyora zvakanyanya paPV Tech mumakore gumi apfuura kuti nei zvakakosha kunzwisisa kuti makambani mazhinji anotengesa mamodule hapana chimwe chinhu kunze kwe 'pakeji' chigadzirwa chakagadzirwa nemamwe makambani.Pamberi, ndaifunga kuti zvakakosha zvakanyanya maererano nekuve nechivimbo mumhando;ikozvino izvi zviri kuverengerwa nekuteedzera uye kudiwa kwekuongorora cheni dzekugovera.
Vatengi vemodule vari kufanira kutora kosi yekuparara mukugadzira dhizaini yekugadzira zvinhu izvozvi, vachibvisa zvidimbu zvemodule nzira yese kudzokera kune zvigadzirwa zvinopinda muzvirimwa zvepolysilicon pasi rose.Zvinorwadza sezvazvingaite senge, mabhenefiti ekupedzisira achave akakosha, pakupedzisira achipfuura ayo ekutsvaga kwekuongorora.
Parizvino, maererano nekugadzirwa kwechikamu (polysilicon, wafer, sero uye module) zvinobatsira kupatsanura nyika kuita zvikamu zvitanhatu: Xinjiang, yakasara yeChina, Southeast Asia, India, US, uye nedzimwe nyika.Zvichida gore rinouya, Europe inopinda pano, asi 2022 inguva isati yakwana kuburitsa Europe (kunze kwekuti Wacker anogadzira polysilicon kuGermany).
Iyo graphic pazasi inotorwa kubva kune webinar yandakaendesa svondo rapfuura.Inoratidza kugadzirwa kwe2022 munzvimbo dzakasiyana siyana dzakaratidzwa pamusoro.
China yakatonga kugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvePV muna 2022, iine yakawanda yekutarisa kuti yakawanda sei polysilicon yakagadzirwa muXinjiang.
Tichipinda muna 2023, pane zvakawanda zvisina chokwadi panguva ino, uye ini ndichaedza nekuvhara izvi mumwedzi mishoma inotevera pazviitiko zvedu uye muPV Tech maficha uye webinars.
Nepo traceability uye ESG icharamba yakakwira pachirongwa chevazhinji (zvese kutenga nekutengesa mamodule), nyaya yemutengo wemodule (ASP) inogona kunge iri iyo yekutevera zvakanyanya (zvakare!).
Module ASP yakaramba yakakwira kwemakore akati wandei nekuda kwekuda kwesimba resolar iro net zero syndrome rakatemerwa hurumende, zvishandiso uye makambani epasirese (solar rinoramba riri iro rinoyevedza rinodzoreredzwa simba nekuda kwekumhanya kwekuendesa uye pa-saiti/ muridzi kuchinjika).Kunyangwe kana munhu achifungidzira kuti kudiwa (kusingatsananguriki kana chikamu chepachende chevatengesi chikawana chigadzirwa) chezuva chakapetwa kaviri mumakore mashoma anotevera, pane imwe nguva China yakawandisa ichapinda munhandare.
Zvichitaurwa zviri nyore, kana iwe uchida zvakapetwa kaviri chimwe chinhu gore rinouya uye cheni yekugovera inodyara kuita zvakapetwa katatu mavhoriyamu egore rapfuura, uyu unova musika wemutengi uye mutengo wechigadzirwa unodzika.Pasi rose nhasi, iyo bottleneck ndeye polysilicon.Muna 2023, mamwe misika inogona kunge iine mamwe mabhodhoro kana paine mamiriro ekunze akaiswa kune mamwe mativi eiyo kukosha ketani (sero kana modules, semuenzaniso).Asi zvinotariswa zvakanyanya papolysilicon uye kuti ingani hutsva huchauya online muChina uye izvo zvinoburitsa;kugona uye kugadzira zvinhu zviviri zvakasiyana, kunyanya kana vatambi vatsva vapinda munzvimbo.
Kufanotaura kugadzirwa kwepolysilicon muna 2023 kwakaoma nhasi.Kwete zvakanyanya maererano nekushanda kuti ndeipi nhanho yehutsva hucha 'kuvakwa';zvakanyanya maererano nezvichagadzira izvi uye kana iyo Chinese polysilicon 'cartel' ichaita kudzora kugovera kuitira kuti irambe yakasimba.Zvine musoro kuti vagadziri veChinese polysilicon vaite sekirabhu, kana cartel, uye vadzikise kuwedzera kana zvichidikanwa, kana kuita gadziriso yakawedzera pakati pegore kuti vapfuure.
Zvakaitika kare zvinotiudza zvakapesana zvakadaro.Makambani eChinese anowanzo kwira pamusoro kana paine kudiwa kwemusika, uye kunyangwe nyika iri kuiswa zvakanaka kuti ipfuure pasi zvisungo pamazinga ehuwandu hwechikamu, inoguma yave yemahara-kune-zvese nemari isingaperi patafura kune chero mutsva. shuviro yeindasitiri.
Izvo zvakakosha kuti uzive kuti polysilicon mitengo inogona kudzika, asi module mitengo inowedzera.Izvi zvinogona kuve zvakaoma kutora mukati sezvo zvichipesana neyakajairwa logic mukati mePV indasitiri.Asi chimwe chinhu chinogona kuitika muna 2023. Ini ndichaedza nekutsanangura izvi izvozvi.
Mumusika une module oversupply (sezvo indasitiri yePV yakashanda zvakanyanya kusvika 2020), panowanzo kuve nekudzika kwemodule ASP inofamba uye kudzvanya kumusoro pamitengo.Nekumisikidza, mitengo yepolysilicon (ichifungidzira kuwandisa ipapo zvakare) yakaderera.Funga nezve sub US $ 10/kg kumashure pazuva.
Mukati memakore akati wandei apfuura, mutengo wemodule hauna kukwira nekuda kwekuti kuwanikwa kwepolysilicon kwaive kwakaomarara uye mitengo yakawedzera (kusvika pamusoro peUS$30/kg kazhinji), asi nekuti yaive musika wemutengesi.Dai mutengo wepolysilicon muna 2022 wakadzikira kusvika paUS$10/kg, vatengesi vemodule vangadai vachiri kukwanisa kutengesa chigadzirwa mumhando 30-40c/W.Paizongove neakawanda margin ewafer, cell uye module vagadziri.Iwe hauburitse mutengo pasi kana usingade.
Kwemwedzi gumi nemisere yapfuura, zvave zvichindishamisa kuti Beijing haina (kuseri kwezviitiko) 'kurayira' iyo polysilicon cartel muChina kudzikisa mitengo pasi.Kwete kubatsira nyika yese kana uchitenga mamodule, asi kubvumidza chikamu chakaringana chepurofiti kune yasara yese yekugadzira kukosha cheni muChina.Ndinogona kungofunga kuti hazvina kuitika nekuti munhu wese muChina akakwanisa kubudirira uye kuchengetedza 10-15% gross margins - kunyangwe nepolysilicon yaitengesa neUS$40/kg.Chikonzero chega ipapo chechirevo cheBeijing chaizove chekuratidza nyika dzekunze kuti vatengesi vayo vepolysilicon (rangarira hafu yepolysilicon yeChina muna 2022 yakagadzirwa muXinjiang) vanga vasingataure 70-80% miganho vachiri pasi pechiedza chinobva kumubvunzo wese weXinjiang. .
Naizvozvo, hakusi kupenga kuti panguva ya2023, pachave nenguva dzekuti mitengo yepolysilicon inodzika asi mutengo wemodule hauna kukanganiswa uye pamwe ungatowedzera.
Hadzisi dzese nhau dzakaipa kune vatengi vemodule muna 2023. Pane zviratidzo zvekuti cyclical oversupply ichaitika, kunyanya muhafu yekutanga ye2023 uye pamwe ichionekwa kutanga kune vatengi veEuropean module.Zvizhinji zveizvi zviri kubva pakuti chikamu cheChinese chiri kutarisa kutumira mavhoriyamu makuru kuEurope uye zvinenge zviri pamusoro pezvingangoitwa nevagadziri veEuropean / EPC munguva pfupi pfupi.
Misoro yemisoro iyi ichave iri pakati pemusangano unouya wePV ModuleTech muMalaga, Spain pa29-30 Mbudzi 2022. Pachine nzvimbo dzekupinda chiitiko ichi;rumwe ruzivo nezve hyperlink pano uye maitiro ekunyoresa kuti upinde.Hapasati pave nenguva iri nani yekuti tiite musangano wedu wekutanga weEuropean PV ModuleTech!
Nguva yekutumira: Nov-21-2022